The Draft

As noted in the charter, the six teams that fail to make the playoffs are all fighting for the first six picks in the next year’s draft.  The probabilities for each team getting the number 1 pick are as follows:

Finish	Probability
9	5%
10	9%
11	14%
12	19%
13	24%
14	29%

Using those probabilities and the wonderful world of Excel, the first six draft picks in each round will be as follows:

Pick	General Manager
1	Scott Freeland
2	David Kitchen
3	Mike Gaunt
4	Chris Thomas
5	Cole Ballard
6	Matt Meier

After adjusting for trades made during the year, we have the following order for the first six of the first round:

Pick	General Manager
1	Scott Freeland
2	David Kitchen
3	David Kitchen (from Mike Gaunt)
4	Chris Thomas
5	Cole Ballard
6	Matt Meier

Be interesting to see what David does with those two picks.